Here's the paper which describes the derivation and validation of the QRISK3 algorithm.
The scientific papers which describe the development and validation of QDiabetes®, are available at the links given below:
- Hippisley-Cox, J, Coupland, C, Development and validation of QDiabetes-2018 risk prediction algorithm to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes: cohort study, BMJ 2017;359:j5019
- Hippisley-Cox, J, Coupland, C, Predicting risk of type 2 diabetes in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QDScore, BMJ 2009;338:b880
- Collins GC, Altman DG, External validation of QDSCORE for predicting the 10-year risk of developing Type 2 diabetes., Diabet. Med. 28, 599-607 (2011)
- Noble D, Mathur R, Dent T, Meads C, Greenhalgh T., Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review. BMJ 2011;343.
- Collins G, Mallett S, Omar O, Yu L-M. Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting. BMC Medicine 2011;9:103.
- Andre Pascal Kengne, Joline W J Beulens, et al., Non-invasive risk scores for prediction of type 2 diabetes (EPIC-InterAct): a validation of existing models, www.thelancet.com/diabetes-endocrinology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S2213-8587(13)70103-7
Here's another validation study:
Endeavour Health